The NFL markets itself as the league of parity… and while there are certain teams that we see reign supreme year in and year out—there is some truth to that claim.
In fact, there are definitely some teams that made the postseason last year, some that even won a game or two—that won’t this season! And vice versa!
We see it happen every year!
Now… without further ado—it is time to get into our topic and pick out 5 2023 NFL Playoff Teams that won’t make it this year and 5 that are a LOCK to get in.
Which NFL teams will surprisingly make the playoffs, and which perennial contenders will come up short?
Playoff Team that Won’t Make it: Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have been postseason regulars over the past few years… Really, ever since Dak Prescott took over at quarterback.
But 2024 is looking like the year they finally fall short.
After all, Prescott has been good, but not great, in the last couple of seasons, especially when it matters most. And there is an element of chaos in Dallas right now with the uncertainty around CeeDee Lamb’s public contract dispute.
Last season, the Cowboys were solid, no doubt… But they got humiliated by the Green Bay Packers in the postseason. And now… there is serious reason to believe that the train will come off the tracks entirely for Jerry Jones’s squad.
They’ve lost some key pieces on both sides of the ball, including Leighton Vander Esch and Tyron Smith—and the NFC East is getting tougher, with the Eagles and Giants both looking strong.
Don’t be surprised if you see the Cowboys finding themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Non-Playoff Team that is a LOCK: Jacksonville Jaguars
While their collapse in the second half of last season was admittedly ugly, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise. The Jags were up against it in 2023, with Trevor Lawrence playing through some serious injuries, but now that he has had a full offseason to recover, this year’s team should look way more like the squad we saw in the first half of the season!
Expect Jacksonville to build on the flashes of brilliance we saw out of them…
Now that he’s fully healthy, Trevor Lawrence should continue to develop!
This NFL team is ready to take the next step. The addition of impact players like Lane Johnson and Bryce Huff has bolstered both sides of the ball, and with a young, hungry roster, the Jaguars are ready for redemption and a serious playoff run.
Playoff Team that Won’t Make it: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the AFC’s top teams in recent years… Well—at least heading into every year, the media tries to make them out to be!
Then, of course, they end up meeting their untimely demise somewhere in the AFC playoffs…
But 2024 might be the year they take a step back—better yet—we may see the wheels come off entirely.
In this recent “golden age” of Bills football, should you wish to call it that… they have relied heavily on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to carry the offense—and one of those guys isn’t going to be there in 2024!
Losing Diggs this offseason is a massive blow… One that I don’t think the Bills or their fans fully understand the ramifications of. People forget, but it wasn’t until Diggs arrived in Buffalo that Josh Allen took that big stride forwards toward being a franchise quarterback!
There should be a very real fear that he regresses without Diggs out there to open up the field and make some ridiculous catches for him…
The chemistry that Allen and Diggs had was something special, and replacing that connection with a patchwork group of receivers is no easy task. Plus, the Bills’ defense, which was already starting to show some cracks, lost key players like Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer.
Without those cornerstone pieces, the Bills might struggle to keep up with the rising powers in the AFC. The window for Buffalo to contend may be closing, and this could be the year they miss out on the playoffs entirely!
Non-Playoff Team that is a LOCK: New York Jets
While the New York Jets are one of those snake-bitten organizations that always seems to have it fall apart on them—it is hard to see that happening this season.
The truth of the matter is that the Jets have been building something special, and 2024 may very well be the year it all comes together. Last season, they were still on the brink of qualifying for the playoffs, and that was with horribly inconsistent quarterback play holding them back.
Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are bonafide studs who managed to generate offense on their own in spite of the disaster situation that they were put in with the quarterback play.
Enter Aaron Rodgers—back from that devastating Achilles tear that derailed their season last year… And the Jets finally have a reliable, proven veteran under center—with something to prove at that!
His leadership and presence on the field, let alone his actual ability to throw the football, will change everything for this team… They will be scared for other NFL teams to try to slow down!
Plus, with a young defense that was already one of the league’s best and stifled opposing offenses on weekly basis last year that is ready to take another big step forward—the team as whole should be legit!
All things considered, the Jets are poised to make a serious run. Rodgers’ presence alone elevates this team to playoff contention, and it’s hard to see them missing out this time around.
Playoff Team that Won’t Make it: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns snuck into the playoffs last year, but don’t expect a repeat performance—especially now that Joe Flacco, who was largely responsible for that miracle salvaging of a season, is in Indy…
There is still a lot of talent on the roster, but unfortunately, the organization is hamstrung by Deshaun Watson’s massive contract, which hasn’t translated into massive results on the field.
Last year’s postseason berth felt more like a fluke than a sign of things to come. The AFC North is a brutal division, and with NFL teams like the Bengals and Ravens looking strong, the Browns could easily find themselves on the outside looking in. Plus, losing key players like Anthony Walker and Sione Takitaki on defense won’t help their cause.
The Browns are almost certainly in store for a reality check this season.
Also Read: The OFFICIAL Final 2024 Offseason Grades For All 32 NFL Teams Revealed
Non-Playoff Team that is a LOCK: Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders have been quietly retooling, and 2024 could be the year they finally break through.
Last season, they showed flashes of high potential, you know, once Antonio Pierce stepped in and put an end to the disaster that was the Josh McDaniels experience in Sin City…
Now Pierce has been given the reigns and a full-time designation, meaning that he’ll have a full offseason to implement his system and get his guys further bought into the culture of toughness and grit that he facilitates.
The one thing that is concerning about this Raiders team is the inconsistency of the quarterback position. The good news is—all of the mystery around whether or not Jimmy G was going to be the guy there is now done with—and they’ll at least have a fresh start with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell duking it out for QB1 responsibilities.
While neither guy is going to be an MVP candidate, if they can lead an offense that protects the ball and plays good, fundamental, complementary football—the lack of offensive firepower may not matter… Because that defense is going to be legit!
The Raiders made a huge pick by adding Christian Wilkins to the same defensive line as Maxx Crosby—and the fact of the matter is they now have the pieces in place to make a serious run.
Obviously, the AFC West is tough—and will ultimately go through Kansas City. But they played great against the Chiefs last year under Pierce and have the talent to compete—if not for the division—definitely for a wild-card berth.
Playoff Team that Won’t Make it: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins were one of the most exciting teams to watch in 2023, particularly early in the NFL season when that offense was really cooking…
They improved year over year from nine and eight to 11 and six—and netting five Pro Bowlers on offense in the process—and earning a playoff bid, but don’t expect them to repeat that magic in 2024.
I mean… We all saw how serious this team really was once post-season football rolled around. There is a very real chance that in 2024 they devolve and deteriorate further.
Plus, Tua Tagovailoa’s health is still a question mark, and without a reliable backup plan—sorry, Mike White and Skylar Thompson—the Dolphins are walking a tightrope.
The organization is also in a really tough spot salary cap wise and lost key players like Robert Hunt and Christian Wilkins on both sides of the ball, which will definitely hurt.
They’ve made some decent moves to fill those gaps, but it’s hard to see them being as effective as they were last year. The AFC is loaded with talent, especially the AFC East—with the exception of the Patriots—and the Dolphins very well may find themselves squeezed out in a competitive playoff race.
Non-Playoff Team that is a LOCK: Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have been flying under the radar for the last couple of seasons, but that’s about to change with the addition of Kirk Cousins as quarterback.
Based on what they were able to accomplish with the two-headed monster of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, they look very much ready to take the next step now that they’ve gotten a veteran, proven signal caller.
Cousins gives the Falcons the stability they’ve lacked under center, and with weapons like Drake London and Kyle Pitts to throw to—we may see Bijan Robinson fully unlocked.
These guys have all been chomping at the bit the last couple of seasons, but between the quarterback play and the coaching scheme, they haven’t had a fair opportunity to deliver… But now, this offense could go from one of the most muted to one of the most explosive in the league.
The NFC South is also wide open and ready for the taking… Heading into the year, Atlanta is primed and in poll position to take advantage and make the playoffs.
Playoff Team that Won’t Make it: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been riding high on the Baker Mayfield redemption story, but there are still questions about how consistent he can be long-term as the franchise QB.
The Bucs did well to make the playoffs last year in a terrible NFC South, but with the way that some of the other NFL teams, namely Atlanta and New Orleans, are retooling, they may be in for a rough ride.
The quarterback situation is unsettled, and the loss of key players like Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett only makes things worse. The NFC South is no longer theirs to dominate… Well—I’m sure they will still dominate the Panthers… But it’s hard to see them keeping pace with the likes of the Saints and Falcons.
This could be the year Tampa Bay falls back to earth and misses the playoffs entirely.
Non-Playoff Team that is a LOCK: New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are poised to bounce back in a big way in 2024.
They were severely limited by Derek Carr’s injuries last year and the Saints will likely look completely different this year, as a healthy Carr is a serious game changer—and they had addition by subtraction in finally parting ways with wide receiver, Michael Thomas, who was a cancer in that locker room.
This should also open up opportunities for talented players like Rashid Shaheed to step in and step up.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Orleans has retooled and reloaded. The Saints added Chase Young to a defense that was frisky all season in 2023 and could be among the best in the league this season.
Tack that onto an offense that’s ready to fire on all cylinders; the Saints are a lock to reclaim their spot in the postseason. The NFC South is theirs for the taking—or, at a minimum, an NFC Wild Card spot!
