The NFL’s opening week delivered everything fans could ask for. Losses, Wins, last-minute comebacks, literally everything. Even few unexpected players looked great. By the time Sunday night ended, 16 teams stood unbeaten while the other 16 are looking for a win. And then, as expected, ESPN has released new Super Bowl 60 predictions that look different from the earlier one.
The results? Let’s just say fans of the Buffalo Bills may want to sit down for this one. Despite Buffalo beating Baltimore less than two days ago, ESPN’s Football Power Index made the Ravens as the early favorite to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Numbers don’t always match the eye test, and this one might be tough to swallow.
Baltimore sits on top with a 15.0% chance of winning it all. The Bills follow at 10.8%. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles land just behind at 10.1%. No other team cracked double digits. Only four clubs even cleared 5%.
Why The Ravens Over Buffalo As Super Bowl Winner?
That’s the million-dollar question. ESPN’s model actually gives Buffalo the edge in almost every other category. The Bills hold a 90.2% chance of making the playoffs compared to Baltimore’s 83.2%. They also lead in division odds (82.6% to 58.4%) and in reaching the Divisional Round (66.2% to 60.6%).
So why the Ravens? It comes down to the AFC Championship odds. Baltimore holds a narrow 38.4% edge to Buffalo’s 37.6%. ESPN’s projection essentially says if these two square off again in January, Lamar Jackson will get the better of Josh Allen.
That theory feels a bit confusing after what just happened. Jackson played well enough to win, but Derrick Henry’s late fumble flipped the game on its head. Allen made a comeback, and the Bills stole the win. Still, anyone who has watched Jackson over the years knows he’s capable of turning the script upside down the next time.
The strange logic of the FPI reminds fans that numbers sometimes create more questions than answers. And while projections matter to some, others are more interested in how brands are already preparing for the big stage, like when Super Bowl LX ads sell out in record time at sky-high prices.
Back on the field, Baltimore’s loss doesn’t effect its standing as a contender. Jackson looks good, and the Ravens have the depth to go the distance. Buffalo, meanwhile, once again proved Allen’s never out of a game. Week 1 brought drama, but the bigger battles will come later.
And if we’ve learned anything from this first slate of games, it’s simple. Don’t trust the math. Trust the play.
