Looking at the Chiefs’ 5-0 start, you’d think things are running smoothly, right? Well, not so fast. There’s a little wrinkle in the fabric, and it’s showing up in the stats. Despite Patrick Mahomes doing his thing, Kansas City’s red-zone efficiency is becoming a concern. Sounds strange? But it’s true.
Sure, they’re ruling as one of only two teams with a perfect record after 5 games (the other being the Vikings). But against the Saints, those red-zone struggles nearly cost them—something they’ve struggled with this season and last. The Saints trailed closely behind until late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs dominated both sides of the ball, yet they only managed a single touchdown alongside three field goals and a goal-line interception in their first five red-zone trips. In terms of touchdown efficiency, they went 2-for-7 in the red zone.
The team was forced to let Harrison Butker kick a trio of chip shots to lead 16-7 before the break, and then had to rely on a late game-sealing TD run by Xavier Worthy to ice the win. Not just that, even Travis Kelce had to take a wildcat snap just to punch it in. Creative? Yes. Ideal? Not so much. See, the problem lies not in getting to the red zone. That’s something Andy Reid’s Chiefs are still top-tier at when it comes to driving into the red zone (ranking #6 in the league). But here’s where the problem lies—the efficiency. Even during last year’s game against the Dolphins, the reigning Super Bowl champion struggled to finish in the hallowed red zone, finishing with four field goals instead.
They’re currently sitting 29th in red zone efficiency with 38.89% just above the Dallas Cowboys (37.50%), Miami Dolphins (36.36%), and the New England Patriots (35.71%), as per teamrankings.com. Topping the list are the Houston Texans at 75%. And for those curious, last year’s Super Bowl contender, the San Francisco 49ers sit at 25th with a 44.44% red zone efficiency.
And it’s not like HC Andy Reid doesn’t realize the shortcomings. “The thing is, you obviously want to score touchdowns and love Butker and he’s doing a phenomenal job, but as you go here, you want to make sure you get in the end zone (and) score touchdowns,” the coach had said last year, which unfortunately, still stands true.
For Patrick Mahomes’ team, this is quite a downfall, considering they were the second-best in the league with a 69.44% red zone scoring percentage, in the 2022 NFL season. On the contrary, the rest of the four (of five) years haven’t been that promising….
What’s more: In the lead-up to the Super Bowl 58 (LVIII), the team was dead last in red zone percentage among remaining playoff teams. Yikes. Well, there’s always a ‘this and that’ argument. Here, it’s the injuries—something Mahomes might not totally agree with. Last year, the QB had said, “I think it’s just execution…I always say it, but in the red zone everything gets so much more detailed and you have to execute at a higher level. Obviously, we were close, but we didn’t get in there. So, when we’re playing a game like this, we’ve got to find a way to turn those field goals into touchdowns in order to win.”
And Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy also agreed. “We know we need touchdowns…We definitely lock in and focus on not just the execution of the plays, but also schematically, what are we doing? How can we do our part to help the players out?
“If you’re gonna take a nine-yard sack or a throwaway, you’re gonna take the throwaway…If something’s not there, you wanna make sure you’re being smart with the football…The great teams have red zone drives, a lot of red zone drives with touchdowns and now that’s tough to stop with this defense as well. It’s great to have field goals, you want points. Defenses are changing schematically on what they’re doing, and that’s always a part of this, too. How are they adapting to what offenses are doing and what are offenses doing to counterattack that?”
And while the absence of guys like Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice does sting, defenses are locking in on Mahomes’ limited options, making things even trickier.
Guess that’s where Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora’s analysis really comes through when he said that since Jerick McKinnon left the Chiefs, their ‘red-zone problems have been more profound’. And it’s true. The Chiefs haven’t quite replaced what he brought in those red-zone situations. Hold on, because we have the numbers to back it up. They used to be the red-zone kings with him scoring touchdowns on 64.4% of their trips. Now? Not so much.
Then there’s the Travis Kelce talk. Some are saying he’s not as sharp as he used to be. And that, maybe, just maybe, it’s time for Patrick Mahomes to start building a stronger connection with a new target.
In five years from now, he’s not gonna have Travis Kelce. So, he’ll continue to have to develop chemistry and relationships with other guys.” That’s what Drew Brees said when asked how Patrick Mahomes can keep being the greatest. Fast forward to today, and the Chiefs just promoted Jody Fortson from the practice squad.
I mean, sooner than later, we were bound to hear it. Trav’s 35 now, and while he’s still a force, the question is, how long can Mahomes lean on him? Especially when we consider that this season hasn’t exactly been kind to Kelce so far.
Let’s be real—Kelce struggled for targets and yardage in the first three games. Mahomes leaned more on Pacheco and Rice—both sideline owing to injuries as of now. Frustration started showing, too. Remember that outburst against the Falcons? It was rough to watch. But then Kelce bounced back with solid performances against the Chargers and Saints, even if he’s still waiting on his first touchdown of the season.
Now, with Fortson on the active roster, it’s got fans wondering—are we nearing the end of the Kelce era? The guy has been a cornerstone of KC’s offense, but there’s no ignoring that he’s not getting any younger. Kelce’s numbers picked up recently, sure. Sixteen receptions, and 159 yards in two games—that’s more like the Kelce we know. But like they say, “Leave the football before football leaves you.” It’s better to know when you’re done than to keep pushing.
So, if this is the last dance for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (together), wouldn’t it be something if they capped it off with an unprecedented 3-peat? That’d be one heck of a way to go out.
