{"id":11864,"date":"2024-10-22T17:18:31","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T17:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/?p=11864"},"modified":"2024-10-22T17:18:31","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T17:18:31","slug":"patrick-mahomes-supposed-down-year-is-still-giving-the-chiefs-everything-they-need","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/?p=11864","title":{"rendered":"Patrick Mahomes\u2019 supposed \u2018down year\u2019 is still giving the Chiefs everything they need"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p id=\"7Uhc2V\">The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.arrowheadpride.com\/\">Kansas City Chiefs<\/a>\u00a0can, and will, keep getting away with it.<\/p>\n<p id=\"vJqMss\">After WR Rashee Rice went down with an injury that would sideline him for an extended period of time,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sbnation.com\/nfl\/2024\/9\/30\/24258034\/kansas-city-chiefs-margin-for-error-rashee-rice-injury\">I wrote about how the Chiefs\u2019 offense has a razor thin margin for error<\/a>\u00a0offensively, and their inability to generate explosives was the biggest reason why I felt unsure about them.<\/p>\n<p id=\"oslm1C\">However, I think I\u2019ve come around on this version of both the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes, whose raw numbers don\u2019t tell the whole story. Through seven games, Mahomes has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (8 INTs to 6 TDs). Those six passing touchdowns are by far the lowest through seven games of his entire career. However, the Chiefs\u2019 offense and Mahomes are have the highest success rate in the NFL at 51.3%. This means over half the time they snap the ball, they\u2019re running a successful play. For context, that would be the sixth highest Success Rate through seven weeks for ANY team since 2018.<\/p>\n<p id=\"UQPvYD\">They\u2019re still one of the best teams in the league in terms of moving the chains and generating first downs, despite the offense not feeling the same.<\/p>\n<div>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The rate at which each offense earns a new set of downs<\/p>\n<p>Sadly, this will probably be the peak for the Bucs <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/spizeIw0PF\">pic.twitter.com\/spizeIw0PF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benbbaldwin\/status\/1848702019009142969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p id=\"tDCLTb\">So, if Mahomes has more interceptions than touchdowns, and the passing offense has felt so sluggish, how are they still doing this at an incredibly high level?<\/p>\n<p id=\"cDBwFa\">The evolution of the Chiefs\u2019 offense has been a sight to behold. From the moment Mahomes took over to where the current offense is, there\u2019s been a shift in how the team executes their offense. For one, they obviously aren\u2019t throwing the ball downfield as much. Mahomes\u2019 current Average Throw Depth of 5.1 Yards is easily the lowest of his career, and a stark drop from the 9.8 number he had in 2019. As much as we want this offense to be the fun and gun, explosive offense that we used to know in KC, I think it\u2019s time we let that go. This offense isn\u2019t going to generate as many explosives as they used to, for multiple reasons. The first one being that there just isn\u2019t enough of a rapport between Mahomes and the little downfield targets that are healthy on this team. First round pick Xavier Worthy has played well in spurts, but he and Mahomes still lack the synchronization downfield that Mahomes had with Tyreek Hill.<\/p>\n<p id=\"A949EE\">Against the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ninersnation.com\/\">49ers<\/a>, there were opportunities, but either Mahomes missed them:<\/p>\n<div id=\"b8X7m9\">\n<blockquote class=\"imgur-embed-pub\" lang=\"en\" data-id=\"a\/42LDcHF\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/imgur.com\/a\/42LDcHF\">View post on imgur.com<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"YS5hc9\">Or something goes terribly wrong, such as Worthy tripping here and it leads to an interception:<\/p>\n<div id=\"0wz5dx\">\n<blockquote class=\"imgur-embed-pub\" lang=\"en\" data-id=\"a\/2hDa4c5\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/imgur.com\/a\/2hDa4c5\">View post on imgur.com<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"OjFBUh\">That, combined with just a lack of downfield options, is why this offense hasn\u2019t felt explosive. Mahomes only has five completions of 20 Air Yards or more this season, his lowest mark through seven games since 2020. So, if they\u2019re not explosive downfield, how is this offense still moving the ball and top 15 in Points Per Game? The answer to that is simple: they kill opponents with the most brutally efficient offense in the game.<\/p>\n<p id=\"CxBGtT\">People point to Mahomes\u2019 aDOT and Air Yards per completion to say he\u2019s checking it down at a higher rate. Well, the answer to that is yes and no. QBs are checking it down far more often, but the way that the KC offense is built, Mahomes and the passing game can feast on numbers and angles. Often, you\u2019ll see Kansas City run a bubble on the backside of run plays, not necessarily an RPO but if Mahomes counts those numbers in the box and they\u2019re more than what they have available to block, he can just flip it out to the screen. This is an example from their win over the Saints. Mahomes sees the box count and just throws it out to the bubble.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"EuGWnb\">\n<blockquote class=\"imgur-embed-pub\" lang=\"en\" data-id=\"a\/cSYKtot\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/imgur.com\/a\/cSYKtot\">View post on imgur.com<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"Ujl4dm\">This, notably, happens on early downs because of how dynamic the Chiefs\u2019 offense has become. With the way that they can run the ball (11th in EPA per carry on all RB runs, 8th in Positive Play Rate in the same metric), the offense can grind teams down and force them to defend every blade of grass horizontally using misdirection and their improved run game. This is again just reading the box count. Because of the threat of Worthy in the slot on a bubble, the overhang defender goes with him and you get six blockers vs six box defenders. The result is a positive gain for Kareem Hunt.<\/p>\n<div id=\"KGToNg\">\n<blockquote class=\"imgur-embed-pub\" lang=\"en\" data-id=\"a\/DBKgnbw\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/imgur.com\/a\/DBKgnbw\">View post on imgur.com<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"gpWk05\">Where the rubber really meets the road for Mahomes is on late downs. While the Chiefs ask him to be more of a distributor on early downs, on third and fourth down he dons the magician\u2019s cape for Kansas City. His Average Throw Depth goes up by almost three yards on late downs, his EPA per attempts jumps massively and on top of that, his scrambles become so much more effective.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-11865\" src=\"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Capture-1-300x69.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"478\" height=\"110\" srcset=\"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Capture-1-300x69.png 300w, https:\/\/usdailys.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Capture-1-768x177.png 768w, https:\/\/usdailys.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Capture-1.png 770w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 478px) 100vw, 478px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"R5fY8W\">Patrick Mahomes has been uber effective as a scrambler this year\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BenjaminSolak\/status\/1848724261566824572\">ESPN\u2019s Ben Solak<\/a>\u00a0wrote that Mahomes has a blistering 87.5% Success Rate on scrambles this year\u2014and it comes at times when the Chiefs need him most. When Kansas City needs nine yards on 3rd and 8, they turn to Mahomes, who simply will not be denied:<\/p>\n<div id=\"zkBXvh\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Third and 8, Niners are in Cover 2 and everything for the most part is covered, and SF gets pressure. Chiefs still get 9 yards because of that psycho they have at QB.<\/p>\n<p>Playing the Chiefs would piss me off so much lmao <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F7W0KToicM\">pic.twitter.com\/F7W0KToicM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/acosta32_jp\/status\/1848456044273377414?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 21, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p id=\"JWlH8I\">Or, if there\u2019s a hole in the zone on late downs, he just scrambles for just enough to piss you off watching on tv.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cVosjQ\">\n<blockquote class=\"imgur-embed-pub\" lang=\"en\" data-id=\"a\/jMNGYqZ\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/imgur.com\/a\/jMNGYqZ\">View post on imgur.com<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"ScYR6D\">In a way, Mahomes has become the new age Tom Brady of NFL quarterbacking. Keeping the offense on schedule through early downs, but the little things that he does when it comes to moving in the pocket and manipulation of underneath defenders is what defines him on early downs. However, when the Chiefs need him most, his timely scrambles on late downs and traditional Mahomes magic define what the Chiefs do.<\/p>\n<p id=\"IyQDZX\">No, it\u2019s not pretty, no, it\u2019s not explosive. But it\u2019s brutally efficient and has the most brutally efficient QB in the game at the forefront.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; The\u00a0Kansas City Chiefs\u00a0can, and will, keep getting away with it. After WR Rashee Rice went down with an injury that would sideline him for an extended period of &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11866,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11864"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11864\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11867,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11864\/revisions\/11867"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/usdailys.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}